Intro Game Theory (2007) Lect 15 of 23
Free Statistics / Probability Video Lesson
Intro Game Theory (2007) Lect 15 of 23
This is one of two lectures thinking deeply and critically about uncertainty in situations of strategic interaction. (Note: lecture 14 was canceled) The first part of the lecture develops the operational subjective concept of probability, using the prices/odds set by the sports betting bookies at nz's TAB to show how subjective probability, while personal, can be measured, by asking agents to "put their money where their mouth " is. The second part uses Gigerenzer's "natural frequency" method of communicating and thinking about uncertainty to explain inverse probability and Bayes theorem (no formulas please - only a "truth table" and, if you're a visual person, a graph, to develop "ballpark" boundedly rational assessments for inverse proabilities.)The original mp4s are perphaps bette rquality and are available available for download at uctv.canterbury.ac.nz From: proudlydismal Views: 1224 3 ratings Time: 42:25 More in Education
This is one of two lectures thinking deeply and critically about uncertainty in situations of strategic interaction. (Note: lecture 14 was canceled) The first part of the lecture develops the operational subjective concept of probability, using the prices/odds set by the sports betting bookies at nz's TAB to show how subjective probability, while personal, can be measured, by asking agents to "put their money where their mouth " is. The second part uses Gigerenzer's "natural frequency" method of communicating and thinking about uncertainty to explain inverse probability and Bayes theorem (no formulas please - only a "truth table" and, if you're a visual person, a graph, to develop "ballpark" boundedly rational assessments for inverse proabilities.)The original mp4s are perphaps bette rquality and are available available for download at uctv.canterbury.ac.nz From: proudlydismal Views: 1224 3 ratings Time: 42:25 More in Education
