Deal or No Deal Probabilities (Using SAGE)
Free Statistics / Probability Video Lesson
Deal or No Deal Probabilities (Using SAGE)
www.philipbrocoum.com What are your chances of winning $1 million on Deal or No Deal with Howie Mandel? Although I don't discuss this in the video, Deal or No Deal is very different from the Monty Hall Problem. Below is an explanation which I originally wrote in the comments: Dammit all, Monty Hall, you've gotten everyone confused TWICE. First, because nobody believed probability works that way, and second, because now everybody thinks that ALL probability works that way. You are incorrect, cantares1. Monty Hall "cheats" which changes the odds. It isn't actually random. For example, what's the probability that you will make it all the way to only two cases remaining without eliminating the $1 million? With Monty Hall, it would be 100% because he would be sure not to open up the $1 million case. In Deal or No Deal, your chances of getting that far are only 2/26, or 1/13. Yes, the odds that you will win $1 million if you go on the show is 1/26. However, if you make it far enough that there are only two cases left, your probability has gone up to 1/2. However, consider the total odds: you have a 1/13 chance of even getting that far, and a 1/2 chance of winning if you do, for a total probability of: 1/13 x 1/2 = 1/26, which is just as you expected. For the Monty Hall problem, you would have a 100% chance of getting that far and a 1/26 chance of winning if you do, for a total probability of: 100% x 1/26 = 1/26, which is just as you expected. This is because it's NOT random ... From: Stedwick Views: 985 5 ratings Time: 04:44 More in Education
www.philipbrocoum.com What are your chances of winning $1 million on Deal or No Deal with Howie Mandel? Although I don't discuss this in the video, Deal or No Deal is very different from the Monty Hall Problem. Below is an explanation which I originally wrote in the comments: Dammit all, Monty Hall, you've gotten everyone confused TWICE. First, because nobody believed probability works that way, and second, because now everybody thinks that ALL probability works that way. You are incorrect, cantares1. Monty Hall "cheats" which changes the odds. It isn't actually random. For example, what's the probability that you will make it all the way to only two cases remaining without eliminating the $1 million? With Monty Hall, it would be 100% because he would be sure not to open up the $1 million case. In Deal or No Deal, your chances of getting that far are only 2/26, or 1/13. Yes, the odds that you will win $1 million if you go on the show is 1/26. However, if you make it far enough that there are only two cases left, your probability has gone up to 1/2. However, consider the total odds: you have a 1/13 chance of even getting that far, and a 1/2 chance of winning if you do, for a total probability of: 1/13 x 1/2 = 1/26, which is just as you expected. For the Monty Hall problem, you would have a 100% chance of getting that far and a 1/26 chance of winning if you do, for a total probability of: 100% x 1/26 = 1/26, which is just as you expected. This is because it's NOT random ... From: Stedwick Views: 985 5 ratings Time: 04:44 More in Education
