Response to EmptyWithoutJesus on Why Science does not speak in absolutes
Free Statistics / Probability Video Lesson
Response to EmptyWithoutJesus on Why Science does not speak in absolutes
This is a quick video I recorded out at Eagle Beach trailhead this Sunday (09-27-09). I apologize for my voice, we are all sick here and the voice suffers. ewj's video here: www.youtube.com The point of this video is to explain 1) why science uses terms like 'maybe', 'could be', 'possibly', instead of terms like 'proven' and 2) what a 'maybe' in science translates to in real numbers. I think I do a poor job explaining myself, but will do a better and longer series maybe this weekend. In science the likelihood of our premise being correct is stated in terms of a statistical probability. The one commonly used is an alpha or p-value of 0.05. This is the likelihood that our experimental result is due to random chance rather than supporting our hypothesis. Before an experiment you would define your alpha which is the same as saying "if my p-value is this value or lower then my results have a probability of 5% or less of being due to random chance". If you think about everyday usages of likelihoods, 95% chance of something occurring are damn good odds, we make life-changing decisions on smaller chances than that. So a scientific maybe is still much stronger than many facts we rely on in our lives! From: LithodidMan Views: 124 25 ratings Time: 04:10 More in People & Blogs
This is a quick video I recorded out at Eagle Beach trailhead this Sunday (09-27-09). I apologize for my voice, we are all sick here and the voice suffers. ewj's video here: www.youtube.com The point of this video is to explain 1) why science uses terms like 'maybe', 'could be', 'possibly', instead of terms like 'proven' and 2) what a 'maybe' in science translates to in real numbers. I think I do a poor job explaining myself, but will do a better and longer series maybe this weekend. In science the likelihood of our premise being correct is stated in terms of a statistical probability. The one commonly used is an alpha or p-value of 0.05. This is the likelihood that our experimental result is due to random chance rather than supporting our hypothesis. Before an experiment you would define your alpha which is the same as saying "if my p-value is this value or lower then my results have a probability of 5% or less of being due to random chance". If you think about everyday usages of likelihoods, 95% chance of something occurring are damn good odds, we make life-changing decisions on smaller chances than that. So a scientific maybe is still much stronger than many facts we rely on in our lives! From: LithodidMan Views: 124 25 ratings Time: 04:10 More in People & Blogs
